We learned from the "power internationalization" salon held on March 17 that in the context of the current energy transformation, the global power will transform to clean and low-carbon, the power demand will continue to grow, the international capacity cooperation of China's power industry still has broad space, and investment risks can be avoided through a variety of strategies.
Clean, green and low carbon have become the high-frequency words of the guests in this salon. Experts believe that with the deepening of energy transformation, clean energy will maintain a high-speed growth trend, and renewable energy installation will be faster than fossil energy installation in the future.
Huang Guofang, deputy general manager of state power investment Yunnan International, said that hydropower installation is steadily increasing, from 1.25 billion kilowatts in 2017 to 1.277 billion kilowatts in 2018. The importance of non hydropower renewable energy represented by solar energy and wind energy is increasingly prominent. In 2017, the installed capacity was 1.042 billion kilowatts, accounting for 15.6% of the total installed capacity. In 2018, it increased to 1.185 billion kilowatts, accounting for 17%.
Zhu Huiping, Deputy Secretary General of China Electric Power Construction Enterprise Association and China Electric Power International capacity cooperation enterprise alliance, said that in the future, new energy will gradually become the investment hotspot of the power industry, photovoltaic investment will have a greater development, and the proportion of global coal power investment will gradually decline.
"In the next 20 years, the annual growth of thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power and new energy installation is expected to be - 0.4%, 0.8%, - 0.6% and 5.2% respectively." Gao Guowei, chief economist and director of International Development Research Office, Enterprise Strategy Research Institute, State Grid Energy Research Institute, predicted.
With the development of new technology and new business forms, the trend of cross-border integration of electric power will be more obvious. With the rapid development of new energy, micro grid, energy storage, smart grid, energy Internet and other technologies, modern information technologies such as big data, cloud computing, Internet of things, and mobile Internet are more and more widely used in the power industry. "Developed economies such as Japan, South Korea, Europe and the United States pay more and more attention to distributed and intelligent energy, as well as hydrogen energy and energy storage technologies, which have broad prospects for future development." Huang Guofang said.
When talking about the target market for overseas investment in the power industry, Tang Lingyue, deputy general manager of China Power Construction International Trade Service Co., Ltd., said that the sustainable development of electric power is very strong. The developed countries have the demand for iterative adjustment of electric power installation structure, and the developing countries have the demand for rigid installation.
Zhu Huiping believes that in 2018-2040, except China, the countries and regions with the growth of electricity demand mainly include India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and central and South America, and India will be the country with the highest growth rate of electricity demand. She also said that electric power investment in South Asia and Southeast Asia will be dominated by hydropower and thermal power, and the proportion of new energy will increase; some countries in Eastern Europe will have greater investment potential, and the proportion of power transmission and transformation and new energy investment will increase; the stock assets of developed countries in Europe will have investment opportunities for M & A, but due to the increased supervision and the third European Energy Act, the investment of state-owned enterprises in Europe will be subject to There will be certain resistance; Africa has few investment opportunities in stock, which will be dominated by green land development, with a decrease in hydropower increment, and a greater development in photovoltaic, photothermal and power transmission and transformation; Latin America will increase investment in clean energy such as wind energy and photovoltaic; Australia has certain investment opportunities in solar energy, wind energy and pumped storage.
In addition, the engineering contracting market in Asia and Africa is broad. In order to alleviate the capital pressure brought by a large number of infrastructure construction, the global power market has a growing demand for funded EPC.
Despite the broad prospect of investment in the overseas power market, international capacity cooperation in the power industry still faces many problems. Gao Guowei said that among the current problems faced by power enterprises in overseas investment, the more prominent one is the problem of investment barriers. He said that some countries have a rising trend of trade protectionism and "anti globalization", with strict but lack of open and transparent access review.
Gao Guowei suggested that small share ratio investment strategy, third-party cooperation strategy, overseas asset reinvestment strategy, overseas investment strategy through funds, stakeholder communication strategy and green land investment strategy could be adopted to gradually enter the international market.
In addition, the change of energy policy in host country and the increasingly fierce competition in electric power industry also make the electric power enterprises of our country face the challenge of "going out". Huang Guofang said that in order to ease the financial pressure and improve the competitiveness of the industry, major economies around the world have reduced subsidies for photovoltaic power generation. Portugal, Spain, Italy, Britain and other European countries take the lead in implementing the policy of non subsidy photovoltaic power generation. More and more countries adopt the bidding mode to develop new photovoltaic projects, some of which have very low price.
Tang Lingyue suggested that, at the government and industry level, first, we should strengthen efforts to promote the "going out" of the power industry and give better support to enterprises in project investment and financing and credit insurance; second, state-owned enterprises and private enterprises that invest overseas should simplify the internal control and approval process, make necessary fault tolerance, and guide and lead the organization of development plans for key countries; third, we should set up special funds to support We will continue to promote the internationalization of Chinese standards and create a sustainable development environment through personnel and technical training.